Mer om den internasjonale kredittkrisen
De dårlige nyhetene om det amerikenaske boligmarkedet forsetter å strømme på. Fallet i boligprisene i USA synes å fortsette med uforminsket styrke. Det nye er at mens boligprisene faller begynner inflasjonspress samtidig å gjøre seg gjeldende på andre områder.
Denne kombinasjonen er særdeles dårlig nytt for den amerikanske økonomien. Jeg tror ikke vi kommer til å nå bunnen i denne krisen før tidligst årsskiftet 2008/2009.
Her er et oppslag om dette fra New York Times:
New Worries on Inflation and Homes
Published: February 27, 2008
Houses are getting cheaper by the month. Everything else is becoming more expensive.
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Home Prices Across the Nation
Several economic reports released on Tuesday provided fresh evidence that the economic pain of a prolonged slump in housing is being compounded by the rising cost of oil, food, clothes and other goods. Not surprisingly, a measure of consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly five years.
In addition to squeezing American homeowners, the confluence of falling home prices and accelerating inflation is putting policy makers in an increasingly tough position. If they move aggressively to cut interest rates and stimulate the economy, they risk fueling inflation further at a time consumers are already strained. But if they fail to act boldly, the economy could weaken faster.
“The Fed is now having to walk a very fine line,” said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management, an investment firm that specializes in bonds. “We have clearly seen an acceleration in inflation pressure in the last couple of months and the risk is that the markets are going to react negatively to aggressive easing going forward.”
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2 kommentarer to “Mer om den internasjonale kredittkrisen”
Apropos er det kanskje på plass med en liten saksing fra IMFs World Economic Outlook April 2003:
“Housing price crashes differ from equity price busts also in three other important imensions. First, the price corrections during housing pricebusts averaged 30 percent, reflecting the lower volatility of housing prices and the lower liquidity in housing markets. Second, housing price crashes lasted about four years, about 1 1/2 years longer than equity price busts. Third, the association between booms and busts was stronger for housing than for equity prices. The implied probability of a housing price boom being followed by a bust in the sample is about 40 percent. Housing and equity price busts have, however, one important feature in common. During the 1970s to the 1990s, they generally coincided or overlapped with recessions.”
Altså er boligkrakk gjerne doobelt så langvarige og dobbelt så dype(!) som børskrakk. Hele koselesningen finnes her:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/chapter2.pdf
Men - Greenspan har helt klart mye av skylden for det amerikanske boligmarkdets kollaps. Med rentenedsettelsene sine sørget han for at meningmann kunne betale dobbelt så mye for en bolig som før nedsettelsen… Interessant også at Bernancke er referert til i artikkelen til IMF.
Men Norge er ikke helt USA, her flommer det tross alt over av oljepenger og utenlandsk arbeidskraft. Og regjeringen er ikke så flinke til å bedrive motkonjunkturpolitikk heller.
Comment made on February 29th, 2008 at 2:44 amFinnes der fortsatt noen som mener at George Walker Bush er en god president for USA?
Comment made on February 29th, 2008 at 8:08 amSkriv kommentar!